will/is the 360 a success?

[labrats5]

First of all, I'd like to thank you for starting this post. Yes, it is an often visited topic, but now that the holidays are over and the sales numbers are in, I think it deserves attention once more.

The 360 has been out the longest, has graphics that match or exceed the ps3, has the more highly rated games, is offered for a reasonable price, and has the best online experience of any console by far. Despite all of this, the 360 is a failure, trailing in last place in two out of 3 regions, while managing a distant second in America. This will not turn around. The big games have already come out. This Christmas was Microsoft's best hope to shift momentum, but it didn't happen. Unless a miracle happens, the 360 will finish in last place this generation, even if it does amass more sales than it's predecessor.

The real question isn't if the 360 is a failure. It clearly is. Microsoft's goal for the 360 was to be the de facto home console for this generation. That's why they launched ahead of sony. If they wanted the graphics whores they would have waited and beefed up their processor. No, they were making a market grab. Also, when has Microsoft ever entered any market with the goal of being a niche? The original xbox was a money-eating test run; the 360 was supposed to make up the loss and apply all that microsoft had learned towards making the ultimate piece of gaming hardware. But the plan failed and they will finish in third. No, the real question is: WHY did the xbox 360 fail?

The first culprit is the RROD. It has become a cliche online, and even the TV stations talk about it. Even if it is like many xbots say, and the problem has been over-exaggerated, or made up entirely by Sony fanboys, that still means absolutely nothing. Once the story became so big, the fact over whether it was true or not became insignificant. The damage had been done. As it is, a lot of people bought PS3's because they felt an extra 200 dollars was a fair price to pay for a console that is reliable, and I can't blame them.

The second culprit is the piss poor industrial design of the damn thing. Seriously, what were they thinking? Hasn't Apple proved over and over again that good looks are as important as anything for a fracking LUXURY IIEM?! That's what a console is: a luxury item. Nintendo was destroyed by this last gen. Learning from the past tends to be a good skill in any industry.

Speaking of learning from the past, that brings me to the #1 cultprit for the failure of the 360: shooters. look at the big Microspft releases this year: Halo 3, COD4, Orange Box, Bioshock. Even Mass Effect, an RPG, is basically a bad team command shooter when it comes to the combat system. Other than games you play with a guitar, there are pretty much no big games on the 360 that don't incorporate either the FP or the S in their gameplay.

The first party games set the tone for the third parties. If you make mini-game collections (the wii), then you'll get mini-game collections from 3rd parties. If you expand your lineup to include a diverse array of games (again, nintendo and the wii), then the 3rd parties will eventually follow suit.

If, on the other hand, you have a ridiculously low first party output, and you're only big game is a genre defining shooter, but you really don't make any sizable attempt to create or market any other games, then guess what? You'll get a sea of shooters from the third parties, and there will be nothing you can do about it.

Yes, shooters are fun, but I've seen this before. I've seen this with beat 'em ups and shoot 'em ups and vs. fighters and adventure games and platformers. When you over saturate a genre, you set it up for collapse. Microsoft and the 360 have placed their bet on a niche market (albeit a large one) that is on the precipice of self-destruction. Even if I'm wrong and the shooter doesn't fade, it will never be able to replace a truly diverse console library.

I realize this piece has been quite long. Perhaps too long. So I'll finish this up. I am a fan of the 360. I think everyone should play gears of war and bioshock at least once in their life. But these great games can only sell so many consoles without the backup of a diverse library. Even if that library does come to fruition, the xbox brand has been tarnished with a reputation of shooters shooters and more shooters; a tarnish that I doubt can be washed away. The best thing Microsoft can do for the next gen is ditch the xbox brand, beef up their first party studios, and play to the great online strength that they have enjoyed all these years.