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I don't think sony will launch a new console in 4 years from now.

when the ps3 launched, Sony thought that all the developers would use everything the console had in it. but it took 3 years for them to finally take a lot out of the ps3.

even so, multiplat developers (due the xbox360) barley use 30% of the ps3. so I think the ps3 has a long life to go.