Wii now 10m ahead of PS3 - putting this into context / future predictions

[shams]

As of this week, the Wii is now 10m ahead of the PS3. Its a pretty incredible statistic, given that both consoles were launched at (roughly) the same time - just over a year ago.

On average, the Wii has been outselling the PS3 by 770k per month (over 13 months).

This also comes to 180k per week, or 25k per day.

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The PS3 has also had 4(?) models released during the period, with 2(?) price cuts, a new colour in Japan, a new controller (etc).

The Wii has had a few software bundles (usually retailer driven) and severe hardware shortages.

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Software has also been telling. As much as people like to think the PS3 had "no" big releases in its first year, the following titles were released on the system - several of them in the "AAA" class:

 - Gundam, Dynasty Warriors, HotShotGolf, Gran Turismo, LAIR, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, R&C, Resistance, Motorstorm, Assassins Creed, Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, Rockband, Sonic, Fifa, PES, etc... 

 

The Wii has also had its share of "AAA" titles, although several of the mega-sellers for the year were less than expected. In many ways, the Wii has had a weaker lineup (although more titles released for it in general):

 - WiiSports, WiiFit, WiiPlay, Zelda:TP, Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime:C, Dragon Quest:Swords, Mario & Sonic, Mario Party, Pokemon, Rayman, Red Steel, etc...

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In conclusion - I can't see any real reason why the Wii wouldn't have a considerably better year in '08 than it did in '07. The PS3 will also have a better year than in '07, but I think the Wii will continue to outpace the PS3 - at an increased rate.

I would expect the Wii to hit a 20m lead over the PS3 by around October/November '08 - possibly earlier if Ninty can sort out their production issues earlier.