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Yeah i think it has to be another Elder Scrolls, the last one sold very well and it has been a while. With these types of Franchise, it would be a shock if its a new IP.

With regards to Fallout that someone else mentioned, I would be very surprised if they havent already begun design on a new Fallout game as well (these things take along time to make). With New Vegas being done by a third party, I would suspect they have already begun engine work/pre-production on a new Fallout. New Vegas is a way for them to keep the IP in peoples minds, and make some extra cash.