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Just to be clear, its called Windows Phone 7.  The Windows 'Mobile' name (and any stigma attached to it) is being retired.

Do I think it'll succeed?  Yeah, I do.  Just like this console gen has supported 3 consoles successfully because the gaming market was still growing, so will the smartphone market support 3 or 4 (if you include Blackberry) operating systems.  Now that's not saying it'll blow anybody out of the water, though.