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ZenfoldorVGI said:

Sony has screwed themselves.

Last generation they were a supermajority of the gaming market, with many, many 3rd party games as "Sony exclusives."

Then they launched late, refused to pay 3rd parties for exclusivity, make their console in such a way that it was unaffordable to the vast majority of consumers, and a few other dumbass business moves.

The key thing that screwed them from supermajority to dead last this generation was launching late. Ironically, that also caused them to "profit late" in that they are just now starting to recoup some of the losses from the PS3. They are not in a good position to launch a new console right now, but MS and Nintendo are.

Sony themselves said they are probably going to be launching late again this generation. Somebody help me out with a link. I predict they will launch even later than last gen.

So, let's recap. From supermajority market dominance last gen, to last place in every console race in which they are competing this gen. From tons of great 3rd party exclusives, to almost no 3rd party exclusives. From a dominant brand position to an average brand position, and from launching late to launching later.

The next thing I want to analize is the power of "the cell." The cell really doesn't matter. It's a processor, it's not a GPU. Who gives a shit if it's tapped. The best looking games on the Xbox, with its standard and much easier to program for cpu, don't look that much worse than any PS3 game. Especially when Crysis 2 comes out. The PS3 is not some supermachine. It is not much more practically powerful than the Xbox 360, and if the next gen consoles don't blow it away I'll be fucking astonished, and I won't buy them because they will be shit. I'll just buy a PC, which is already vastly more powerful than the Playstation 3 ever could be in every aspect. The CPU is important, but it is only one part, and it certainly can't open up other bottlenecks. Especially when its more trouble than its worth to develop for, and a half of a gen's worth of multiplats ended up looking like shit because of it. Had Sony launched with a standard cpu, there would be a shit-ton of multiplats out there with better graphics on the PS3, including some big hitters, like Fallout 3, The Orange Box, and Red Dead Revolver. Games that are arguably better than most exclusives on any console.

A much bigger boon and the only good think for the Playstation brand this generation is the extra storage capacity Blu-Ray provides. It has the potential to make future games much better. However, if games are tending towards installation, and/or direct download next gen, then the BR becomes less of a necessity. This is compouned if you compare the read/write speeds of a standard laptop Hard-Disc or even a SDD to a high speed blu-ray drive. However, Blu-Ray has marketability, and thus it is a good thing for Sony. I'm much rather launch early or have some sort of brand handicap though, were I in competition, because I highly doubt the next Xbox launches with just a DVD drive on it.

They're not in a great position, compared to say, the Xbox or the Wii, both coming off their most successful generations ever, red hot, and ready to launch new hardware ahead of the Playstation. This is compounded by the fact that the US, which is dominated by Wii and 360, is quickly becoming the most influential, profitable, and dominant videogame market worldwide, thanks in great part to the decline of the core obscure gaming culture in Japan this generation(Playstation's lifeblood).

Let's talk graphics and games.

We often talk about the Xbox 360 as a console with few relevant exclusives. However, the Xbox is competing with the PS3, much more than the PC in this regard, so it doesn't really need them. All that matters is the console has tentpole multiplats the the PS3 doesn't have. This will stay the same next generation. For fanboy arguments, we can make "exclusive" lists, but that doesn't give a real idea of library quality. As long as the Playstation can't play games like Fable III, Gears III, and Halo, it doesn't matter if PC gamers can. Those games increase the quality of the Xbox 360 library comparitively to the PS3. So, talking about exclusives really isn't giving a clear picture, and in fact, it is giving a purposefully cloudy picture full of bias. The Xbox 360's library is strong because of multiplats. Not only does it get all of the PS360 multiplats, it's also gets all of the PC360 multiplats, as the PC and PS3 rarely share games the Xbox 360 lacks. The vast majority of games, AAA or otherwise this generation are multiplats available on the 360.

My point is, game quality is subjective, and there is an argument that it is also moot from a  marketing perspective. In other words, it doesn't matter than you like Playstation 3 exclusives. They won't drive sales for Sony next gen anymore than they did this gen. Last gen, Sony had tons of 3rd party exclusives, which are now multiplat, and that advantage is now lost forever.

Graphics. They're great this gen. Honest, there isn't a huge difference between top end graphics on the games available on the consoles. It comes more down to artstyle. Given the graphics we've seen in games like Uncharted 2, Gears 3, and Farcry 2, while the PS3 does have a graphical advantage, it is vastly overstated. Imagine this is a highway. The Wii is running about 50 MPH. The Xbox 360 is running about 300 MPH. The PS3 is running about 320 MPH. That difference isn't significant as a marketing tool. It's just not. Now maybe the PS3 will increase in speed, BUT, last generation, the Xbox was arguably much more powerful compared to the PS2, than the PS3 is to the 360. I'd guess it was at about 40 percent more powerful than the PS2, and it had an internal Hard-Drive. Were those things important to Playstation fanboys at that time? Who is to say Sony will continue to have the most powerful console next gen? They probably will since the only way they will have the more powerful console is if they launch later than the competition. It's a double-edged sword.

Just some food for thought. Is Sony really in a better position than Nintendo or Xbox next gen? Think about it. If worst position is defined as screwed, then they are.

actually from math point of view  ps3 would be 420MPH or more.