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I can't see Move being a 'success' unless it's around for a long time.    It's too close to Wii to have any kind of 'wow' factor (Kinect has that) but a library of must own Move games will prompt people to buy.

Problem is, the next generation lead by Nintendo and or MS will start before Move can build up serious momentum and then it'll be old 'last gen' tech.

However, if it keeps MS from running away with all the hype, and keeps PS3 competitive then it may serve it's purpose well enough and be a success on some level.