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It's basically Sony's biggest accessory launch since the original DualShock, and they're vocally treating like a new platform launch in terms of promotion and support.  The Subway ad even calls it "the new PlayStation 3 Move system".

Personally, if it does a Wii Balance Board like attach ratio or better (ie: 30-40%), I'd say that's an outright success.  If it's only an Eyetoy like attach ratio (ie: 5-10%), then that's an outright failure.  Anything in the middle can probably be spun either direction, depending on system preference.