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I think you guys definitely underestimate GT5. It's fueled by a community who many of which, exclusively play driving similators. Within serious sim racing communitys, Forza is considered somewhat of a joke, as it's vastly inferior to it's PC counterparts, visually, and in terms of it's physics engine. 

GT5 is built, for these players. Fortunately, GT5 is actually ahead, of both Forza, and PC sim counterparts, in terms of content, visuals and function. So it should have a very, very wide audience. In Europe, GT5 is a massive deal, the people will buy PS3s if that's where the definitive racing experience was. The same as several million Koreans are prepared to upgrade there PC to make the specs for Starcraft 2.