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Considering Halo Reach is the third iteration of the Halo series on the 360, it won't push as much console sales.  While there's quite a few that have been waiting for GT5 on PS3 and it hasn't been on the PS3 before, there's a greater chance to push hardware sales for the PS3.  While I think Kinect will do better than Move, I don't think either will push any hardware in general.

I wouldn't discount bluray that much.  It is helping PS3 sales in general(several percent IMO).  I see greater bluray adoption this coming year but there are other cheaper bluray players out there now.  Only a mild boost there for PS3.

I think PS3 will take 2-3 weeks post GT5 release but Xbox the rest of the season.

 

Edit: I forgot about GT5 prologue