Considering Halo Reach is the third iteration of the Halo series on the 360, it won't push as much console sales. While there's quite a few that have been waiting for GT5 on PS3 and it hasn't been on the PS3 before, there's a greater chance to push hardware sales for the PS3. While I think Kinect will do better than Move, I don't think either will push any hardware in general.
I wouldn't discount bluray that much. It is helping PS3 sales in general(several percent IMO). I see greater bluray adoption this coming year but there are other cheaper bluray players out there now. Only a mild boost there for PS3.
I think PS3 will take 2-3 weeks post GT5 release but Xbox the rest of the season.
Edit: I forgot about GT5 prologue