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I'm surprised by this ...

While I'm certain Microsoft wouldn't make this change without first testing the consequences, I would expect that a lower resolution camera would make Kinect far less precise; and would increase the number and severity of errors. Although, this could also be the result of Microsoft changing the scope of what Kinect is, and by that I mean that some of the hardware could have been choosen for capturing more complicated and expressive motions (hands/face), or could have been choosen to open the use of the system by more players, and with limited interest from developers for this extra functionality it doesn't make much sense to have the hardware for it (at this point in time).