Decline and fall of the US.

[HernanDroid]

numonex said:

starcraft said:

HernanDroid said:

I dont really think that's the case, since Spain, the empires are considered for the entire world( Spain, France, U.K., EE.UU), in many cases, when an empire ends, the rest of the world start growing and a new empire is born:

Spain fell after many internal problems (They even exist today, Barcelona wants to be apart from Madrid and start a new state).

France and later U.K. sort of controlled the whole world together, but they fell in the s.XX because of germany, while they were in war, many latinamerican countries and the USA itself got stronger and a new power was born.

After the USA, i would call China, people think that without the USA, China wont survive, but it may be actually the opposite, China buys about 20% of the USA debt, Japan buys like 16%, Korea, etc, etc.

They buy that debt, cause they want a "strong dollar" so they could keep having certain advantage to their economies in a world wide basis and grow faster, but they also trade with themselves and China is about to become the top country for Latinamerica in commercial relationships, it is actually for Brasil, Argentina, Chile, and many more countries.

If those East-Asia-countries wanted to, they could stop their "Buy Dollar" policies and crash the whole financial system, but no one wants that(cause they would grow at a slower rate), that's is why Obama went first to China to tell them "buy our debt", however, it is the USA the one that needs to spend better the money they have.

The difference is that America does not have a military control over the planet, it has an economic hold.  America has a tiny fraction of the world's population, and an ENORMOUS amount of it's consumption base.  Also, much of the wealth that is used by China comes from the fact it owns substantial US debt, debt that would be worthless if America went under.

The foreign debt can always be defaulted on by issuing a new currency. By deflating the US currency, the foreign debt is automatically decreased in value. China deliberately keeps its currency rates under valued  which gives it international competitive advantage. China floods the world market with cheap goods , the US is the world's main consumer. 

US has a population equivalent to only 5% of the world's population. However it accounts for 40% of the world's consumption. China and India populations are both around 4 or 5 times larger than the US population. 

India and China  should emerge as the next super powers to take over from the US. 

The debt China owns is because his goverment has had lots of surplus and they dont spend it in their own country, but they save it and use that money to distorsionate the real value of their own and other's countries currencies. I know that debt is not worth that much now cause the FED polices made the dollar "cheap", but it still is there and the USA wants China to buy more, however, it is China that has chosen not to buy that much(They owned 27% of the total's USA debt a year ago, but now they only own 20%).

The US is the biggest market in the world, but it depends on the merchandise you are talking about. It is easier to sell 200 million cellphones a year to a 1.300 million population than a 300 million population. There is a new thing in economics called "Acquisitive Power Parity", i must accept i dont understand it that much, but it measures the salaries in one country, and compares them with "the cost of living" in that country. According to that metric, China and India are pretty close to the USA(Wikipedia) and i m pretty sure its internal market is going to get stronger when their currencies get as strong as the dollar.

 

Now, back to the USA, i think they need to lesser its military power, they spend way too much in that department for the benefits they collect. I know that many countries are dangerous, but the problem must be taken with a diferent focus if we want to solve it in a Win-Win situation.