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The main reason I believe he will not win, is that I honestly think the economy will get worse by the next election. I think the job reports we have been getting are not accurate, I think there are far more unemployed than we are told. I really do not see how any of actions Obama has taken has helped. Wall street has not recovered, the housing market does not look like it has recovered, what have we taken from the mass amounts of money spent in bail outs? what new resources do we have to recover? Economic concerns will be at the forefront of this election as so many americans are suffering right now. That is my opinion on the matter. Hopefully we will get the most voter turn out we have had in a long time. And I am all for a third party also, maybe a conservitive pary that does not have a unified social stance, but just wants to lower taxes.