Linkzmax on 24 December 2007
| mrstickball said: Not quite, Linkz. Soriku was VASTLY more off. Leo-J, although off by maybe 3m (or less), predicted a system that sold 19m vs. 16m. A 20% difference. Soriku on the other hand, predicted 5m on a system that'll sell 8.5m (give or take). Nearly a 70% difference. That'd be like LeoJ predicting the Wii did around 12-13m. Definately not the same. Leo-J, like myself, and many others, anticipated declining demand and/or fewer production increases from Nintendo for the Wii. Which we were wrong. Whereas, many people assumed earlier in the year something would happen for the PS3 to spark demand (games like Lair, HS, Uncharted, JPY bundles, price drops, ect). |
Yes, relatively speaking Soriku was vastly more off. Leo-j would've had to predict about 11.25m to have the same percentage difference. Considering the Wii was already at 10m with no signs of slowing down to a measly 250k a month, such a prediction would've been fantasy.
You are right though. Soriku made the prediction hot on the heels of the first price cut and when there were already rumors of a 40GB model with a $399 price tag. Even if such a model never came there was no consideration given for holiday sales.
