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Silver-Tiger said:

Three words:

Bigger. Install. Base.


Another three,

Gears of War (2)

Edit - I should elaborate, whilst bigger install base is a factor (Gears 1 - 2 was a 15 mill jump, Halo 3 - Reach is a 30 mill jump) it helps first week sales more than lifetime.

Gears 2 didn't have the legs of it's predeccessor, and that could be the story for Reach as well. My personal opinion is it won't. But .... a bigger install base is only going to contribuit towards first week/month sales rather than Lifetime.