To Kinect and Nintendo comparisions:
Microsoft is neither Nintendo nor Apple. Even if they try. A Zune is no Ipod .
A microsoft store is no Apple store and Kinect is not Wii.
Actually I really doubt that most of the people who bought the WII will buy Kinect.
And to Halo Reach it could be somewhat of a Systemseller since the Xbox360S is on the market and people probably will upgrade and could buy a Halo Reach bundle to do that.
GT5 on the other hand is a slow burner like always and it will contribute to the profile of the Playstation 3 and sell a lot consoles on long sight imo.