I don't think it's an outlandish prediction. Selling 70 million consoles already makes me believe that not only has the Wii peaked, but it has finally saturated the "Casual" market. Any device can only be the "Gotta have it toy" for so long among the mainstream consumer. Quite frankly I'm surprised that the Wii was able to maintain the "it" factor for 3 consecutive holidays...and Nintendo should be commended for achieving this.
With Sony and Microsoft both releasing motion control options this holiday, Nintendo has a piece of the Wii novelty. Regardless if Move or Kinect manage to expand or cannabilize the Wii market.
Nintendo has pulled out all the stops when it comes to software for the Wii this year. That should help them maintain good console sales through the holidays. But, it may be Nintendo who shows their hand first next year when it comes to their next gen console if sales continue to decline. Will just have to wait and see what happens this holiday.
