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Ok I have no idea how many 360s will be available from Kinect launch to January. Or how many Kinects WW will be available to January. 

My guess is the week Kinect launches 360's and Kinect will be sold out on every delivery through to January.

Guess?

360's sold first week of Kinect? = 800,000

Kinect on launch week? = 1.7 million.