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Tough to say since the MS hype machine and advertising hasn't really kicked into gear yet, but with over 40 million current 360 owners only 1 out of every 40 would have to buy a Kinect to hit 1 million first week, and that's not even considering how many new casuals might buy a bundle.

I could see Kinect easily doing 1.5 million first week if advertising is done right.