I just realized that Nintendo will stay in first place for a long time

[dharh]

RolStoppable said:

Gilgamesh said:

Don't know why people are expecting the 3DS to keep the handheld crown again for another generation when no one knows the competition it's rather ridiculous if I do say so myself. That's like in early 2005 some people can say the X360 is going to be the console leader because it's got good graphics and Live, and yet they know nothing about the PS3 or Wii yet, see makes no sense. Wait and see what Sony's offering first and then we'll judge.

The PSP was Sony's first handheld, they learn a lot from it and what to improve to make it better, the PSP2 is only going to be that much better, and now that Sony knows what there competition is they can do whatever they want to make it that much better then the 3DS. 

The Playstation brand is still defined through it's big games, Sony has the most first party studios then any other gaming company and they constantly pump out AAA games, Playstation is still known to have the best games, just not as much as they use to (third party games). Microsoft is moving in a different direction the Sony and Nintendo anyway with Kinect, (here's another anything can happen line) hell next gen it could be Nintendo and Microsoft competing and Sony in a different group all together or Sony and Nintendo competing and Microsoft being in a different audience. You never know :)

Difference is that the Xbox 360 was the successor to a distant second place console while the 3DS is the successor to the (soon to be) best selling video game system in history and further backed up by Nintendo's track record of dominating the portable gaming market since the very beginning. Not to mention that the 3DS will benefit from a headstart over its competition, plus being backed up by third party publishers. Gamers are very excited about the 3DS and with all odds going against Sony, how can they possibly beat Nintendo?

Sony may pump out AAA games, but how many of them are really big sellers? They only have Gran Turismo while Nintendo has several games that are even bigger than GT. The reality is, if Sony doesn't have exclusive big third party support, they have a very hard time to beat their competitors.

I know you really love the "anything can happen" line, but it's entirely possible to predict things based on things we know or at the very least it's possible to gauge the probability of an outcome. For example, the probability that Nintendo doesn't dominate the next handheld generation with the 3DS is very low. Likewise, the probability that Sony gets back on top in the home console space is also low as long as Microsoft remains in the market, because they won't allow Sony to get significant exclusive third party support again.

People always talk about past records being a major driver for peoples further purchases. I think its nothing more than 50/50 and could be alot less. I was an avid Nintendo kid. I still think NES/SNES is the best gaming ive ever had. Yet I knew right away that N64 was not good, I could feel it in my bones and thus waited until GC days to even buy it.

Nintendo could easily make a dud. It doesn't really matter that the 3DS is the successor to the best selling handheld ever. If its cost is too high and it doesn't have the same compelling games as the DS or if SONY does it right and has the same price point with the same games as well as the games nintendo doesn't do, it could one up the 3DS.

People didn't buy the Wii for its motion controls, rather they bought the Wii for the games that were made possible by motion controls. I think this is an important distinction because as far as im concerned the 3DS is completely missing this lesson.