Working graveyard shifts in mental health (10 pm to 6 am), I have a lot of time to peruse newspapers online for articles. I mainly use the realclearpolitics site and browse at realclearworld, realclearmarkets, and realclearsports.
Lately, the news has not been so good. The USA with Obama in office is going down the policy line Japan did in the 1990s where there is stagnant economic growth punctuated by governmental economic stimulus. In Japan this economic stimulus did not work out very well, but the Japanese being the perservering and industrious people they are, got through it and are now tackling the problem of the future for all 1st world nations, changing demographics where a 1/5 or more of a country's population is aged 65 and over.
I just finished reading this: http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/19556146/
Basically, the real unemployment rate (those working part time, those who have stopped filing unemployment claims, but still live in a household with a working family member, and the unemployed filing unemployment claims) is above 20% in the United States as I write this.
The question becomes, what effect will a 20% unemployment rate in the United States have on the entire video game industry?
I have a few opinions:
1. Quality releases will be farther and few between because small studios who in a better economy could have got the publishers to go along with their game will find publishers hesistant to invest in any games that sells less than 1.5 to 2 million copies.
2. Indie games will become more apparent. Small game developer studios having to compete with monies for sequels to blockbusters or a more successful game developer studio's new "it" project will be pushed to the fringes in an economy where publishers want a guaranteed return on investment.
3. Casual games will explode in number due to the success of Nintendo's Blue Ocean Business Strategy and everyone else in the industry following the coattails of the industry leader.
4. Niche genre games (FPS, RPGs, sandbox and on) will become more nichey as publishers are unwilling to invest in them after a cost/benefit analysis comparison between the next greatest RPG of all time that will sell only 2 million at the most in 2 years versus the next good casual game that will be forgotten after 3 years, but will sell 2 million+ in the next year or two.
5. More pay-to-play. More unemployed gamers = less games sold. Henceforth, in order to finance sequels and new projects, publishers will try to find ways to milk video gamers for their online play. Whether this is more MMORPGs, an MMOFPS, or higher online fees is unknown.
Howdo you think a 20% real unemployment in the United States will shape the video game industry?
