| Reasonable said: If Kinect is to be anything other than a decent selling ad-on then yes, I think it does have to see some transference of demand from the Wii. Of course success for Kinect may only need a small amount (I'm sure only in their wildest dreams do the 360 team at MS really think the 360/Kinect is suddenly going to be dominant and crushing the Wii worldwide) but if it only sells to existing base and a small percentage of the curious then I'd say it will have failed. If it can transfer 5 to 10% of potential Wii purchases then I would say it would have been an okay success. Anything more and it's success would only be greater in relation to the percentage. I believe Move has the same issue. PS3/360 are selling to specific demographics right now, so is the Wii, and with Kinect/Move so clearly and obviously aimed at the Wii demographic (Kinect in particular I think has been even more targeted than Move in terms of marketing so far) then to succeed they will need to take some of the current demand for the Wii. Short version - I don't think there is an untapped demographic and market for Kinect. It's market is already occupied by the Wii and therefore it must make inroads against that incumbent competitor. @ImJustBayuum - I think this answers you too, regarding my views on success criteria for Kinect. |
How do you quantify any changes in demand due to what happens with another console? For instance the PS3 had a price cut in 2009 but as of now I cannot see what effect it may or may not have had on Xbox 360 sales and these two consoles are apparently targetting a similar market. Beyond that theres the question of who is buying it, is it just the unattached Wii owners or is it also the attached Wii owners, but then only the software attach rate would tell the story and thats clouded with conflicting data. So even if there was a transferrence of demand it may not be immediately obvious in the sales of Wii hardware/software. The sales data only tells us a part of the story.
