Why Kinect is Missing the Point of the Wii

[Reasonable]

WilliamWatts said:

Reasonable said:

Some good points, but with Kinect for me the main issue is simply does it do enough to achieve transference of demand from the Wii?

Right now the Wii is very well established, has a strong library and remains the most popular console (even allowing for its YOY drops).  At this point I'm not taking the surge in US to be anything other than temporary and driven by people buying up clearance older models plus a lot of existing owners getting the shiny new model, but will of course look to the next 4 weeks or so to confirm if I'm right to do so.

Kinect is rumoured to be fairly expensive ($149) and is very much an add-on vs the Wii always being a complete package from launch, and by comparison at this point Kinect has a fairly limited if fun looking library of titles set for launch.

It does have a great hook for the common media - "look, no controller!" - but it remains a bit unknown to what extent that will have real draw and gain good word of mouth (something that was crucial to the Wii's success).

Comparing the two, I'm just not sure Kinect has enough there to transfer a lot of demand away from the Wii (which I believe would need to happen for it to be truly successful) and to the 360/Kinect combo.

I expect it to actually sell well to existing 360 owners even if just for something to have for parties/fun, and for sure it'll gain some new converts initially if for nothing more than novelty value, but unless MS are aiming low with an eye to next gen then it needs to unseat a simpler, more known console with a far more mature library of titles that already has the most marketshare - and that still feels like a tall order to me.

Note - I could more or less reprise this for the PS3 although Move does have a few advantages over Kinect (and some disadvantages) which would change some aspects of this arguement.

Does it need transference of demand from the Wii? Or if there is some transference does it need to be significant? Even if 5% of potential Wii owners switch the effective difference is 10% relatively between the sales of the two consoles.

I don't know the price, I don't think anyone knows for sure what it is. All thats been confirmed is that the prices given are placeholders by impatient retailers.

I think one signficant difference the camera interface makes is that Kinect is the only interface which can give a full demonstration in store because the Kinect console itself can be locked away easily whilst still being used. With consoles and wireless controllers people can simply walk away with the controllers. This is significant if they can get a Kinect console in every store this Christmas they can drive a lot of demand simply by letting people use it. Nintendo and Sony cannot offer that same instore hands on experience.

If Kinect is to be anything other than a decent selling ad-on then yes, I think it does have to see some transference of demand from the Wii.  Of course success for Kinect may only need a small amount (I'm sure only in their wildest dreams do the 360 team at MS really think the 360/Kinect is suddenly going to be dominant and crushing the Wii worldwide) but if it only sells to existing base and a small percentage of the curious then I'd say it will have failed.

If it can transfer 5 to 10% of potential Wii purchases then I would say it would have been an okay success.  Anything more and it's success would only be greater in relation to the percentage.

I believe Move has the same issue.  PS3/360 are selling to specific demographics right now, so is the Wii, and with Kinect/Move so clearly and obviously aimed at the Wii demographic (Kinect in particular I think has been even more targeted than Move in terms of marketing so far) then to succeed they will need to take some of the current demand for the Wii.

Short version - I don't think there is an untapped demographic and market for Kinect.  It's market is already occupied by the Wii and therefore it must make inroads against that incumbent competitor.

@ImJustBayuum - I think this answers you too, regarding my views on success criteria for Kinect.