Will PS Move sell to non PS3 owners?

[binary solo]

Or to put it the more usual parlance: Will PS Move be a system seller?

Your question has 2 parts: Will it attract gamers who are into motion controls who don't have a PS3 (i.e. mostly gamers who own a Wii already)? And will it attract casuals, being further split into whoever still exists in the "casual" demographic who doesn't own a Wii who are never-the-less possible console buyers, and casuals who already own a Wii?

To the first segment of the potential system selling market I think the answer is not without some very compelling games that really can't be replicated on Wii. As there are already some compelling non-motion controlled games on PS3 it seems like it'll be a hard sell to convince core gamers who are into the Wii to get themselves a PS3 as well, and I don't think Move is the thing that will convince many. I think a small percentage will, eventually, with another PS3 price cut, whenever that happens. I still maintain that Sony haven't got a shit show of reaching 15 million shipped for FY10/11 without a price cut.

To the second segment of the system selling market, with the first group (non-Wii owners), it seems like it's gonna be a pretty small group by now. But whatever, Sony has a prety good chance of grabbing a fair share of the leftovers, after all a potential unique selling point to the casual gaming market for PS3 is not only Move, but also a good quality Blu-ray movie player (with 3D if you're into that sort of thing), so the steeper price can be justified on the basis that you're not just getting a motion control gaming system for your $400, it'll come down to marketing. With the casuals who are Wii owners, well if they're still very casual I don't see (m)any of them moving to PS3 (see what I did there?). If they've caught the gaming bug, a wee bit (see what I did there?) then perhaps a similar marketing approach to the non-Wii owning casuals could be effective at gaining Sony a modest number of these folks.

Overall though I don't see Move as a significant system seller. I think it may get people who would self identify as likely PS3 buyers in the future PS3 buyers to finally get a PS3, because now it does what the PS3 does, and it also does what the Wii does. But I'd call those people already reasonably committed to buying PS3 and so Move isn't really a system seller to those people.

More than likely all these little bits of various demographics will amount to significantly less than the VGC margin for error in estimating HW sales, meaning no clearly discernable effect on PS3 sales. Move will rely primarily on the existing user base, and already committed PS3 buyers for most of its sales; so Sony's gotta get on with preaching to the converted.