Halo is a system seller, no matter what. However, the bump in sales might not be noticable or negligible compared to the slim bump and the holiday bump. No way it has the impact Halo 3 did, but it'll sell consoles.
Kinect is the real mystery though. If Microsoft markets it correctly, the sky is the limit for the 360. 4-player interactive games with NO add-ons, they can market it as cheaper than a wii (once you include 3 controllers plus fit board), cleaner than a wii since moms won't have to pick up controllers and accessories or trip on them, plus it is HD. They can appeal to any casual player who still doesn't have a wii yet and parents who want to buy their kids something big for christmas but the kid already has a wii. It also appeals to moms who want a workout or yoga game that provides proper feedback and doesn't require a blance board either. Essentially, they could say it's an upgrade for owners that already have a wii (hardware-wise). It's because of this point that I think we will first see a mass amount of casual/kids games for the kinect just after launch.
I really think that the kinect bundles will have huge sales as long as they have the software library that wii 'upgraders' are looking for. One must hope that the ps move and kinect ads don't attack each other so much that they cannibilize themselves and leave the wii as the only one standing.
For the poll though, I'll say that the xbox won't be #1 for all of sept/oct. However, because of the high saturation level the wii already has, nov/dec is a definite possibility for the 360 being #1.
