predictions for 2008

[Renar]

Soriku said:

Renar said:
Oh, and prediction for 08.

Wii at least 40 million. 45 if more production increases are already in motion.
PS3 19
X360 25

As for the 50%, Wii will reach it in Aug 08, (N fanboys rejoice) and lose it in Dec (MS/S say 'I told you so'). Since Wii will be like this year and not drop off as much in the main part of the year, but not sell as much as MS and Sony during holidays 08.

 

Why not?

While difficult to see last year, because of the Wii introduction, and PS3's sales to Europe not until Mar 07, the VG weekly sales still tell the story that I think will be repeated again, only with higher numbers, especially for Wii and PS3, X360 if they are lucky. 

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39054&end=39432

The highest sales for all 3 machines were around 600k, Wii and X360 at Xmas, PS3 at Europe launch.   For X360 and PS3, sales tumbled down 84% or more to less than 100k a week.  Wii, for the most part averaged 250k, with a good deal of shortages, but not nearly as bad in the summer, late fall than now.  (after all, Leo got a pic of Wii boxes in August!!  :)  )   Now, X360 and PS3 have gone up 5x to 500k, the Wii up not quite 3x to 700k, though as I said, more shortages now. 

If X360 and PS3 drop back down to 150k a week for most of the year, and the Wii could say do 400k+ a week, allowing it to get up to the 50%, pre-holiday.  Then as the holidays hit, and the two other boxes jump up in sales, they could get up to say 750k in the holiday sales.  If the Wii could not substain 1.5M a week, then it would lose market share, enough to perhaps drop below 50% again.