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I also think Nintendo could be the aggressor and release their next console first. I bet they took a look at MS releasing the 360 first and thought, "huh.. if we would have just done that, we would probably have  over 55% of the market right now." After all, pretty much the sole reason the 360 is edging out the PS3 right now is because it has a year head start.

I think Nintendo's next console will launch in 2012, with MS shortly behind, possibly the same year or 2013, and Sony will be last with a 2014 release. I can see Sony trying to drag out the PS3 as long as possible, to a slow and painful death, to try to pile up as many PS3 sales as they can before moving on.