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jarrod on 28 June 2010
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thismeintiel said:
jarrod said:
thismeintiel said:

You are right about the previous Prologues not launching this much earlier than the main game.  But, consumers didn't know that would be the case when GT5P released.  Once again, we can look at the corresponding sales of the last Prologue (GT4P) and GT5P.  Now, GT4P was released a year before GT4 released, so let's just look at the sales til then.  VGC only has the Japanese numbers, but by going by these it looks like GT4P sold most copies, if not all, by Week 32.  I would imagine that is the case for all regions.  It also didn't release in America, so I'll just add the American sales of GT5P up to Week 32 (532K) to the total shipped copies of GT4P (1.36 mil).  This gives us ~ 1.89 mil GT4P possibly could of sold (on a MUCH larger install base) if released in America.  By Week 32, GT5P had already sold ~ 2.21 mil.  I think GT5P is a good indication that the GT series is very much alive.

Comparing Prologues is a losing argument because (1) GT4P didn't get a worldwide release, (2) GT4P wasn't the first "Gran Turismo" release on it's system, (3) GT4 came only a year after GT4P, (4) GT4 didn't have a year of online updates following release and (5) GT4P didn't get a heavy amount of hardware bundles.  There's so many differentiating factors that any direct comparison inherently going to be flawed and heavily favoring GT5P.

That last point (5) is also a huge issue if you actually examine Japanese sales (the only region where we have a good idea for the split between bundled and standalone numbers).  GT5P only sold about 250k on it's own, it did another 300k when it was bundled with PS3 hardware, a year later, and at NO extra cost.  Essentially GT5P sold 250k in Japan and SCE gave away another 300k.... that doesn't compare well at all with GT4 in Japan (750k sold) either.  Hell, even GT Tokyo Concept sold 350k in Japan.

1.  I realise it wasn't realeased in America, hence the reason I added GT5P's America sales up til Week 32 to it's total.

2.  Again I realise that, but that could actually go in favor of GT4P, as it had a MUCH larger install base than the PS3 did 2 years ago. 

3.  Yes, which is why I only went to Week 32 for both releases.  We know that GT5 is being released much later than GT5P in comparison, but like I said, initial purchasers didn't know this would be the case.

4 & 5.  How does GT5P getting bundled a year later in Japan have any effect on my argument if I only went out to Week 32?  That's less than 8 months.  If you want to compare Others, we can.  GT4P sold 570K total in Others.  GT5P sold over 1 mil in Others in just 6 weeks.  Now it is true there were bundles, so if you wish we can subtract the PS3 HW sales in those same weeks.  VGC puts this at 517,874.  Which would give the standalone GT5P sales of 510,654K.  Now, this isn't completely fair for GT5P for a couple of reasons.  One, there were standalone PS3 units still being sold, as well as a 2nd "Movie Bundle."  And Second, I know those bundles were for EU, but I am not sure they were released for any other territory within Others.  So, if those are factored in, GT5P was most likely able to sell in 6 weeks ~ the same as GT4P did in about a year.

So my arguments stand.  And if you want to say that GT5P is not a good indication that GT5 will do well, then I would have to say that it shouldn't be used as an indication it will do poorly, either.  Not that you were doing so.

I'm not saying GT5P can't be used as an indication for GT5 sales, I'm saying any direct correlation to GT4P is going to lead to inherently flawed conclusions.  GT5P:GT5 to GT4P:GT4 is not a 1:1 comparison, there are just too many differing variables.

Also, to the installed base argument, actual sales for GT seem to indicated the opposite.  The best selling GT games in every previous generation were also the first GT games released on those platforms (GT1, GT3).  This is why I had mention of GT5P's "first mover" advantage, which I'd argue has likely helped inflate sales to a large degree.