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Slimebeast said:

But the $149 Slim Arcade would already be sold at a loss (because until now the fat Arcade was sold at a loss even at $199 according to MS). And so would the $99 Kinect (that thing must cost more than $99 to build). So the total loss for Aracde Kinect bundle at $199 would be more than $50. :/

Thus I more believe in a $249 Arcade Kinect (and $349 Elite Kinect).

Where do people get this?  No way that the current Arcade sells at a loss.

Common senses tells you that MS will reduce price come this fall.

First off they want to introduce the Xbox 360 S at existing price and make a little profit.
Second they want to clear current SKU inventory without huge cuts.
Third they want to setup for the Kinect launch.
Fourth they will reduce Xbox 360 S price this fall and re-introduce the arcade SKU.

Keeping in mind this and you can see why they did not announce price of Kinect at E3.  They will in August which is the right time to make pricing changes.  When they announce price of Kinect they will announce price of bundle.  It would be stupid to announce price of bundle at say $399 (360 S and Kinect) only to reduce price before Kinect launch.  Think about what Sony did they announced the Move bundle price at $399. That virtually guarantees that PS3 price will not change this fall.  Certainly Sony wont reduce prices of PS3 of PS3 with Move before Move launches.  MS doesnt want to be in that same boat.

So launch Xbox 360 S now at $299 and clear inventory of existing 360s.
Come August announce/release new Arcade (No it wont have a smaller HDD, because they dont save $).
Come August announce Kinect pricing and 360 S bundle(s) pricing.

MS wont risk not having another holiday/year with PS3 at $299 and 360s at this same current price model. Next year Sony will be able to reduce PS3 price. MS wants to retain the $ advantage and take advantage of that this year.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.