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Seece, consider the $200 price tag to be the Arcade system with a harddrive and also WiFi built into it.  The HD would be smaller, but enough to do what is needed.  You keep the price but add more to the system.  There isn't a price drop.

There is the case of Kinect being available and how much it would sell for, and how much of a hit one takes buying the new 360 now.