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I just think MS's plan to solely capture the casual market is going to backfire on them.  Especially if the cheapest bundle for Kinect is $300, like Gamestop had listed earlier.  With the $200 Wii, casuals are just going to keep buying the Wii.  Which is why I think Sony is smart for appealing to the casuals and the core gamers.  While it doesn't guarantee it's success, it does give it a better chance IMO.