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I think both will be heavily inhibited by both price and their late entry into the generation.

As for which won't do as badly as the other, it could go either way, imo.  They each have an advantage over the other:

  • Move will have more support.  It'll be used in both Wii ports and multiplats like Tiger Woods, plus it can be fairly easily implemented into shooters and whatnot like Killzone and Socom.  Then there's titles like LBP that'll use Move to accent regular gameplay, most similar to Super Mario Galaxy or Okami.  Kinects uses have thus far shown to be far more limited, given it's lack of buttons.  It works great for Kinectimals, but other than that?
  • Kinect will (presumably) be bundled with every 360 from the point it is released onwards.  That will guarantee at least a somewhat decent adoption rate.  However, the new prices that will accompany the new 360 SKUs ($299/$399) could stimy the 360's sales in the face of its competitors, thus still makign adoption somewhat slow.