Neither one is going to overtake the casual market. Wii already has that, it's not going to change, and I'm sick of hearing about it.
That said, Kinect is a cooler technology, cause we haven't seen it before, but I really don't see it catching on. I don't want to speak to my Xbox to make it do things, and I don't want to hold invisible steering wheels. I'd rather hold a real steering wheel. I mean seriously, the demos for Kinect games this E3 was so lame, I could barely stand it. Move wasn't that great either, but was much more gamer friendly than Kinect in my opinion.
Neither one is going to overtake Wii for the casual market, but MS seemed to make that their goal more so than Sony. Unless you're really into dancing games in HD, I don't see why you'd want to buy a Kinect.
