Kinect has a better chance as it is a UI overhaul as well which is a draw for the causal crowd. Move is not cheap enough. At $100 it is very similar to Kinect and potentially more expensive (2 player would be $179).
While move is a better game controller Kinect may end up being better overall. PS3 is not using the PS3 eye microphone for voice recognition which would even the playing field .