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Here is a scenario:

The Arcade system is $150.  It is the new system, without Kinecs. 

There is a $300 bundle that comes with Kinects, and a hard drive.  Maybe is a 120 GB harddrive.  If they are basing it around the new model, as far as I know, there is no internal memory in it, like the current arcade systems have.

There is a $400 Elite bundle that comes with Kinects and a 500 GB HD and other goodies bundled with it.

And then we find out Natal will actually sell for $100, rather thna $150.