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thx1139 said:

Only if they will be ready to sell them within a couple of weeks.  You dont announce a replacement product or price reduction with much advance notice. That would kill existing sales.


This.  And if that were the case, there would be more retailer rumblings than we've seen (which is none outside of 'Project Natal'.

If this were a poll, I would vote no.  If it comes, it'll be later in the year just like Sony did last year (announced in August several weeks before release).