Natal will be awesome:
I expect that natal will reign supreme for the following:
-hefty price tag of natal, $50 or $59 games way too much for a casual
-MS's market is heavily shooter and action oriented, slapping balls around or whatever won't be a big attraction
-the development for these games is expensive, so MS (and ultimately the consumer) will be paying for this somehow, so expect the dev issue to slightly dampen things
-All indications show that there isn't that much good content out for natal. Of course I could be proven wrong in a week, but at the same time, i'd expect some good leaks thus far instead of the chicken dancing thing lol