2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

[white devil]

At the end of 2007, I expect around 19 million Wii's, 16.5 million 360's and 8.5 million PS3's sold. For 2008, I'm generally bullish that all systems will have a increase from 2007.

Wii - I expect Wii's sales to increase only marginally due to supply problems. It'll still sell incredible, but there is an upper limit to what it can sell based on how many they can make. In 2008, I expect it to sell 21 million consoles, bringing LTD to 40 million.

Xbox 360 - I expect the 360 will continue to do very well in America. I think it's impressive back catalog and more accessible price will allow it sell considerably better here as well, with a price cut and GTA4 cementing it's position. In Japan, it will have a marginal but ultimately meaningless increase. In Europe, I expect it to do similar numbers as this year. However, I think a big price cut to coincide with the release of GTA4 could allow it to switch positions with the PS3 again. Overall, I expect it to sell around 10.5 million next year, for a LTD of 27 million.

PS3 - I expect the PS3 to follow a similar path as the 360 next year. It will sell better next year in Japan, but it will remain relatively insignificant (2 million for the year). In America, it will only do marginally better for most of the year, as it's price of entry is still too high. In Europe, I expect it to do considerably better compared the slow parts from last year, but the price advantage of the 360 could hurt it at GTA4 launch. I'm expecting games such as KZ2 and MGS4 to underperform based on other exclusives that the system has seen. Which is not to say they will flop, but they won't ignite system sales. I expect 8.5 million systems sold, for a total of 17 million LTD.