Unlike selnor I don't see natal getting into the hands of many existing 360 owners via a repurchase of the harware they already have. If MS want to sell to a substantial segment of the existing 360 install base then they need to make it a reasonably priced peripheral. In US dollar terms I think that's around $100. I think that's a good price as long as the sales pitch is right, which is: for $100 4 people can play motion controlled games. If you want 4 paople to play at the same time on Wii Motion or PS3 Move then you are looking at paying $??? which is a lot more than Natal.
However if MS don't care too much for the current install base (figuring a good many of the current base really don't have a lot of interest in controllerless / motion control gaming) then their focus will be on the Natal 360 bundle and they will stiff existing 360 owners with the $149 price tag and probably make a 30% profit on it. If they can do an [redesigned] Arcade Natal bundle for $199 then you might just find current 360 owners paying the extra $50 to get themselves an Xtrabox. $199 will probably be break even or slight loss, but the Elite will still sell for a tidy profit, as will the Elite Natal bundle.
I think $100 Natal, $199 redesigned Arcade Natal, $299 Elite Natal.
What I don't have a feel for is whether MS will continue to sell Arcade and Elite sans Natal at $50-$75 less than the Natal bundles.
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