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I'm going to side with Pachter and say its going to be between $69.99-79.99 alone.

Now things get interesting:  bundles.  

1) IF MS was planning on cutting the price $50 on the Arcade and Elite, that would make them $149.99 and $249.99 respectively.  Its a given that is reasonable considering its been almost 2 years since the last price cut and their cuts are usually $50.  

2) IF there is a slim introduced that cost even less to manufacture, such a price cut will be even a LARGER given.

Now, if you consider 1 as a likelihood and 2 as a possibility, they could realistically decide to NOT drop the price and instead bundle 'Natal' with EVERY 360 SOLD GOING FORWARD without raising the price.

So, I'm calling it now:  when 'Natal' launches, $199 'Natal' Arcade and $299 'Natal' Elite.  No traditional price cut for the 360 this year, 'Natal' in with every console from now on.

This might not be announced at E3 because it could cannibalize sales, but it might because it would get big time cheers and be great PR.

Thoughts?