I expect there will be a cheap "Natal cost reduced 360 slim" bundle for 199 $ or even less.
Natal sucks for core games, but it could really be great for casual games. But casual gamers do not own 360s - which is probably the main reason why Microsoft invented Natal: to make the 360 attractive to an audience that so far did not have any reason to buy a 360.
That strategy might really work, but it will only work if a basic bundle of a 360, Natal and a Minigame collection costs only about as much as a Wii.
The Natal hardware alone might eventually be typical Microsoft overpriced - but there will definitely be a cheap bundle. Still, I just cannot image Microsoft selling Natal alone for more than 99$. Anything more than 99$ would be regarded as way to expensive.
