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okr said:
@binary solo: According to boxofficemojo POP is now already at $133 million worldwide. I think Boutros is right with his >$350 million prediction, just like some weeks ago when he said in his thread about Alice in Wonderland that it will be a huge success and might beat Dark Knight and several people answered him it won't have good legs or it won't reach $500 million worldwide. AiW meanwhile crossed $1.06 billion and surpassed Dark Knight's ww boxoffice.

Firstly in quite a few markets PoP has had 2 weekends in theatres. If $133 million was the opening weekend takings worldwide then I'd say $350 million is certain. But because the "foreign" takings associated with that $133 ($95.5 million) is over 2 weekends then the final gross would typically be somewhere South of $350 million.

Working in PoP's favour of making more than the the opening weekend results would suggest is the following quote from the NYT:

"Marketing may also have played a role. Feedback from test audiences before the film’s release was hugely positive. When turnout is poor after good test screenings, it often suggests that the public doesn’t like what it sees in the marketing materials. Disney fired its top marketing executives in a management overhaul late last year and has only recently installed a new team."

So, good feedback from test screenings might mean good legs on word of mouth despite a crapppy marketing job. One wonders whether Disney achieved anything in replacing it's marketing execs if they screwed up the marketing of such an expensive movie.

If the USA 2nd weekend drop is -20% or thereabouts then expect good legs for this movie. If it's ~40% then it's legs will be nothing special and it will follow the standards movie pattern. If the drop is >50% then it's gonna bomb hard. So all bets are off until next weekend's numbers are in.

It's doing well in China and Russia apparently, so maybe the commies will be its saviour.

 



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