2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

[JervisTetch]

First Post:

To be honest, I think that its silly to try to predict which system will win next year when we dont know what the final lineup will be for Holiday 08. If any of the three systems were to announce a big exclusive (like Kingdom Hearts 3 or a new Star Fox or God of War III) then this would all change completely.

However, given what we now know, I will make a prediction. The Wii will continue to dominate. Wii Fit will sell very well, driving hardware sales but without a large affect on other software. Smash Brothers and Mario Kart will sell in the millions and keep the Wii in demand throughout the Spring. The new colors will help move systems in Japan and I imagine that new colors will be introduced in other markets shortly thereafter

I also think that the 360 and PS3 will remain relatively even, but that PS3 will gradually continue to catch up in worldwide sales. Since GTA and DMC will appear on both consoles, neither will gain much benefit from either game. MGSIV is the most significant announced game of 08 that is exclusive to either PS3 or 360, so the PS3 will benefit from this. However, I dont know if Metal Gear's appeal is wide enough to make a huge difference (I could be wrong, though).

Predictions for the end of 2008:
Wii: 38 million
360: 25 million
PS3: 23 million

As a sidenote, I am very interested in how Ghostbusters sells next winter. This is (I think) the first major third-party game (not counting GHIII) announced for all three systems at the same time. Therefore, I think that the performance of Ghostbusters could have a huge influence on how the rest of this generation plays out.