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Does anyone know how much timed exclusive or exclusive game deals cost a company?

I do not believe Sony would waste money on an exclusive deal on a dying series like Tekken. Tekken 7 is very unlikely to be a PS3 exclusive just like most of the third party titles. Third party developers make more money by producing multiplatform games. The current gen. game market is flooded with fighting games: Soul Calibur 4, a couple of Street Fighter IV games, Fight Night games, an insipid Tekken 6 and a quite a few other fighting games.

If Namco was a first party or second party developer owned fully or partially by Sony it would be a different scenario.