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He's right in that the 360's core franchises (Halo, Gears, COD) probably will not use Natal, so a lot of the current 360 owners may not buy it. The casuals they are after will probably go with a Wii as it is already very popular and will be cheaper, at least initially. I think Move will suffer from the same problem, although Move may be useful in some of the PS3's more popular franchises (GT5, even possibly COD).