NK Sinks SK Ship; Says Retaliation = War

[Branko2166]

stof said:

Branko2166 said:

For the record I hope this crisis does not escalate and is quickly and peacefully resolved. However the situation is very complex and we must look at the entire history of the divided Korea and not just the last few months in order to analyze it properly.

Many here think, and I can understand why they do that it would be best if the leadership of North Korea could be overthrown and Korea reunified. However many in the west thought the same thing in the 1950's and in the end a war occurred which caused millions of casualties but ended in a stalemate without a peace treaty between the north and south leaving them in a state of war which persists until the present day. The only thing in place which is preventing hostilities is a cease fire agreement.

A couple of people in this thread have indicated that China would stay out of it and that they have no reason to help the North. It is my belief that if the South with the support of the west starts a war China will intervene, if only to preserve a buffer between itself and the US military. Keep in mind that South Korea still hosts US troops and that the number of those troops can always be increased. In any case I can see China being vehemently opposed to US forces being stationed in the North in case of reunification.

I believe that the best course of action is to have a peaceful resolution. However if the west along with South Korea decide to remove the North's leadership they will have to sit down with China and work out an arrangement whereby the North would be demilitarized. If unilateral action is taken I believe there will be dire consequences not only for the region but for the rest of the world both in the economic and security respects.

But the U.S. troops in South Korea are there as a direct result of North Korea. Were the threat of North Korea to evaporate with unification, the role of the U.S. Military in the region would be re-examined by both the U.S. and Korea. 

Also, the notion that China would ally themselves with North Korea in a military conflict for the purpose of avoiding the United States is a bit counterproductive, considering that it would put them into direct confrontation with the U.S. army, as well as South Korea's, Japans, and numerous other U.N. nations.

There's also the fact that total trade between China and North Korea is worth about 2.7 billion, while trade between China South Korea is worth about 156.2 Billion.

It's been suggested before that one of the key reasons China supports North Korea is because it fears that the country's collapse would swell the already large numbers of refugees crossing the border in to China. It may be a good reason for support, but it would hardly at all be a reason to be drawn in to world war 3.

There is no way China would want to involve itself militarily in such a dispute.

I agree that China has an important economic relationship with the South Koreans and an even bigger one with America however I believe that when it comes to China that issues of security trump economics.

If we look at the situation in 1950, China was in economic ruin and had hardly any military industry to speak of. They had just come out of the devastation of world war 2 as well as a civil war. They were in an infinitely worse position than they are in now and yet they chose to intervene against a far better eqipped West.

And while they may take an economic hit by getting involved, the economic fallout would swing in both directions. If you want to look at a more recent event to demonstrate China's policy of no compromise on security, it would be the Tibet riots. They occurred just prior to the olympic games when all eyes were on China. China's response was to quell the riots without giving in to any demands.

All I'm saying is, is that when it comes to matters of security it would be far wiser for South Korea and America to negotiate rather than repeating history albeit against a far more formidable opponent in today's well equipped and loaded with cash reserves China.

edit- Hopefully it doesn't come to such a situation but I sincerely hope that the people in power in Washington and Seoul negotiate rather than act unilateraly. I'm also hopeful that China will get more involved behind the scenes to rein in the North Koreans.