The $300 arcade bundle sounds like a terrible deal unless M$ decides to add a hard drive to the Arcade in that bundle. Can Natal even run without a hard drive?
Natal as a standalone sounds way too expensive for $150. At the $100 pricepoint, Wii Fit has sold around 35 million copies, which is about 1 Wii Fit for every 2 Wii consoles on the market.
360 has a 40 million console-base, and I don't think Natal will sell anywhere near the 1 Natal for every 2 Xbox ratio that Wii Fit has. Halo 3 and MW2 haven't even been able to hit that ratio. If 360 can sell 10-15 million Natal units out of their 40 million userbase, then they are doing very well. The Natal bundle should also increase the number of Natal's on the market.
I think the Natal bundle will stimulate 360 sales, but it isn't going to double the 360 lifespan. The inexpensive price of the Wii is going to deter many people from buying the Natal bundle.
I am not sure why software companies are lining up to make games for Natal. They may have a few hits out of this, but they are going to have a much more divided market. Plus, casuals don't buy tons of games.
Natal may have limited success, but I don't it is going to be anywhere near as successful as Wii Fit was.
Most anticipated games of 2011:
Uncharted 3,Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rocksmith
Modern Warfare 3, Super Mario 3D
