i dont think either will sell well. i believe that the majority of 360 and ps3 owners are the "hardcore gamer" who like more of the same and traditional controllers.
motion controls have little appeal to the hardcore gamer.
so that leaves the casual market that the wii currently dominates
and i seriously doubt that casual gamers who own the wii are going to invest a second console.
PS move has a chance to do well i believe because it is so similar to the wiimote. however i do not see people going out and buying a ps3 just to use move.
natal i feel is way ahead of its time and i dont think microsoft can can offer it at a low price without dumbing the machine down.
i dont think natal is going to offer any complex games for the hardcore because having no controller will make for very simple control schemes
and like PSmove i dont think it will be a huge system seller
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