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If this question came up a year ago, I would say "definitely".  Unfortunately the Japanese market is quite unpredictable in its console purchases.  We all know that they aren't going to buy any 360s.  The big question is, are they going to buy enough PS3s overall?

I will say that it is possible for the PS3 to win without NA.  I think it is more likely that North American tastes will change and it won't matter 5 years from now anyway.  In the end, I think Microsoft's faulty hardware will be a bigger mistake than Sony's lack of games, bad advertising, and forcing expensive bluray down the public's throats.