Well, $149 for Natal (if true) is still going to be cheaper than a full set up for Move for 4 players. PSEye+4xMove+2xNav will almost certainly be more than $150.
I wouldn't be surprised if your Natal 360 bundle comes with a Natal game pre-installed, and the Natal will retail with a Natal title. Just like Wii Sports is auto-bundled and your basic PSMove entry pack will have a game bundled.
Elite / Arcade Natal bundle won't be $150 more than your basic Elite/Arcade. I think MS can auto-bundle Natal at launch with every 360 sold and still drop the price (of Elite at least) by $50. Perhaps hold the Arcade price. However if they want to really get the install base growing they need to convince existing 360 owners to buy it. They'll be 40 million sold before Natal arrives, and they will be doing very well out of this generation if they get to 60 million 360 consoles sold. Unless they pull in a lot of the already 40 million sold Natal won't have a decent install base until quite late in the piece. Same with Move.
I still mostly reckon Natal and Move are primarily being readied to be an integrated part of the next generation and including them in this generation is mostly to get them established in the public consciousness so that uptake in the next generation will be rapid and enthusiastic.
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